Extended forecast

Effective from: Wed 8 Feb '12, 12:25PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Fri 10/2 1pm.

Previous day's summary:

Monday's large pulse of E/NE groundswell eased overnight leaving less consistent 4-5ft waves across most open beaches, with some locations coming in a touch smaller, and others a touch bigger. Winds were poor through with a fresh and gusty S/SE wind that limited the best waves to protected southern corners.

The swell eased further during the day with smaller 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves seen across open beaches. Winds remained troublesome through with a fresh SE'ly that has since tended more E/SE and eased a touch. A smaller S/SE windswell has also been in the mix over the last couple of days, keeping south facing beaches active.

Swell events within the forecast period:

* Easing E'ly swell tomorrow and further Friday
Our extended run of E'ly swell will continue to ease into the end of the week as the fetch of winds generating the swell in the eastern Tasman Sea continue to weaken and break down. Open beaches should continue to offer 2-3ft waves tomorrow before easing to a smaller 2ft on Friday.

Winds tomorrow are likely to remain onshore from the E/SE creating poor conditions before freshening into the afternoon. Friday looks to play out similar, so there'll be no real quality available around the region.

2) Small to medium sized SE swell persisting tomorrow, tending E/SE Friday and building slightly, peaking overnight, easing Saturday
Monday morning's S'ly change was associated with a surface trough pushing up the southern NSW coast, and this trough has since stalled east of us, generating a persistent fetch of SE winds aimed into the Hunter coast.

The trough should broaden and intensify slightly during this evening, with the axis of the trough slipping slightly south during tomorrow resulting in the fetch being directed more into our swell window. This should result in SE swell continuing at 2-3ft across mainly south facing beaches tomorrow before tending E/SE in direction on Friday and building slightly into the afternoon. The E/SE swell should peak overnight and then ease from 2-3ft+ on Saturday morning across open beaches as a result of the trough drifting further south and weakening on Friday.

Winds on Saturday morning should improve as the trough drifts south, with a light and variable airstream expected across Sydney on Saturday morning ahead of SE sea breezes. The South Coast however will still probably see onshores continuing due to the southern flank of the trough still directing E'ly winds into the coast.

3) Small to medium sized E/SE swell filling in Sunday, easing Monday
The outlook for Sunday is still a little uncertain as the models continue to remain divergent on the intensification of the surface trough mentioned above off the far South Coast.

Both have a small and weak area of low pressure forming, but GFS holds it slightly further north than EC, resulting in a slightly bigger E/SE swell. In any case we should see at least 2-3ft waves continuing across open beaches through the day as E/SE swell spreads out radially from a strong fetch of E/SE winds aimed into the far South Coast. Due to the fetch being aimed mainly towards the far South Coast, we can expect larger waves across that region.

The low is forecast by both models to slowly drift away towards New Zealand during Sunday evening and Monday, resulting in a drop in swell from 2-3ft on Monday, back to 2ft+ or so on Tuesday our of the SE.

Winds on Sunday look to remain favourable with a moderate SW'ly, tending E/SE during the afternoon, with Monday seeing light W/SW winds ahead of SE sea breezes.

4) Small and very inconsistent E/NE cyclone swell building late Sunday afternoon, peaking Monday morning
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is currently a category 4 cyclone positioned between New Caledonia and Vanuatu and is producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 110kts with gusts up to 135kts.

TC Jasmine is forecast to drift slowly south-southeast during today and tomorrow before stalling south-east of New Caledonia during tomorrow evening and Friday while weakening significantly.

A small and very inconsistent E/NE groundswell should be generated from Jasmine that is expected to arrive late on Sunday afternoon and build to an infrequent 2ft, with a peak around 2ft to nearly 3ft expected early on Monday. The swell will then drop rapidly into the afternoon, back to a small 1-2ft.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
There's nothing significant on the cards for the middle of next week, but a couple of sources of swell are on the cards for later in the week. One of these is a long-range E/NE trade-swell generated north of New Zealand, but this doesn't look to really peak above 2ft+ at this stage. There's the possibility of SE windswell also in the mix, but we'll look over this again on Friday.