Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 6 Feb '12, 08:48PM

Forecast updated 6/2 5pm. Next update 8/2 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Swell Events in this Forecast Period:

E swell fading back Tues with small background E swell persisting.

Short range SE swell building Wed and holding Thursday.

Chance of E swell from TC Jasmine (low confidence) this weekend.

The weekend was full of pumping surf and light winds that made it the stand-out of the year so far. Sat saw surf start out under-sized in the 3ft range with the big morning tide masking the energy. As the tide started running out surf built strongly into the 3-5ft range with 6ft sets. Areas between Cape Byron and the QLD border seemed to pick-up the strongest signal. The surf held at strong levels through Sat with light morning land breezes transitioning to light SE winds.

Sun saw plenty more strong E swell with SEQLD seeing size holding in the 3-5ft range with bigger sets. Size had eased in NENSW with 3-4ft surf and the odd bomb set. As the tide ran out there were some good to great surf again on the points with beachbreaks there for those who weren't scared of a few duckdives. The swell was very tidally affected by the big tides running up to the full moon.

Compared to forecast expectations the swell came in stronger and more juicy. Hindcasting from the ASCAT data we can see the fetch moved more slowly through the swell window, had winds perfectly angled with respect to the circle rays in the eastern path and developed the strongest winds at the head of the fetch. This all contributed to the swell over-achieving compared to forecast models.

Big picture and the low responsible for the weekend's swell is still drifting south in the Tasman, though out of our swell window with the fetch aimed to southern NSW and Tasmania. A weak high pressure ridge will be activated by a trough off the north coast which see increasing south to south-east winds during the next 48hrs and the development of some short range SE swell. Small levels of background E swell are expected to linger this week. A tropical low we've been watching in the Coral Sea has now become TC Jasmine and is moving E towards Vanautu. TC Jasmine presents a small window of opportunity for surf potential as it is expected to track between New Caledonia and Vanautu, emerging into our eastern swell window just as it rapidly weakens and tracks away to the SE. It's possible it may generate a pulse of easterly swell as it tracks into the swell window but there's extremely low confidence on size due to the expected rapid weakening as in enters the swell window. A tropical depression near Fiji is currently moving east away from us as the general strong area of convergence between tradewinds and the monsoon breaks down.

Short term and we're now in an easing trend as our E swell slowly ebbs away. Size tomorrow should be in the 3ft range, easing during the day to 2-3ft. Expect the morning tide to play a big role. S'ly winds are expected to increase as the trough deepens off the north coast.

These southerly winds form a thin fetch off the coast of strong winds during late Tues into Wed with a short range local SSE/SE swell expected to build into the 2-3ft range during Wed. Mod/fresh S'ly winds continue and these winds should be stronger in NENSW. A mix leftover E swell and short range SE swell is expected during Wed.

Surf stays at similar sizes during Thurs with a mix of SE swell and background E swell in the 2-3ft range. Mod/fresh S/SSE winds continue as the high pressure ridge strengthens a little.

By Thursday we'll have a firm read on the surf potential of TC Jasmine as it tracks SE of Vanautu into our swell window. If the system brings a swell producing fetch to bear then we'll be looking at an E swell pulse arriving Sat. There's just as much chance the system will be weakening and racing away to the SE which would see only a small marginal amount of E swell being generated.

Friday sees small SE swell in the 1-2ft range with winds easing a notch. These light winds should extend into the weekend with light land and seabreezes. Our surf potential on the weekend is very much tied up with the fate of TC Jasmine. We'll pencil in an E swell of some description and recommend tuning in Wed as we get a much clearer idea on how TC Jasmine will behave as it enters our swell window.

Longer term and models are favouring the development of a surface trough somewhere off the NSW coast late on the weekend . Depending on the position of the trough we could be looking at a short range ESE swell, though models seem to be favouring the fetch to be aimed more at central NSW at the moment. High pressure is expected to rebuild near NZ early next week with tradewinds north of the North Island expected to supply small levels of E swell into the medium term. Hope you've been getting some of this great surf. Seeya Wed.