Extended forecast

Effective from: Fri 3 Feb '12, 04:00PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Mon 6/2 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

There's been no real quality surf on offer across the Fleurieu Peninsula over the last couple of days with tiny beginner waves on the Mid Coast and south-east slops down South.

A slight improvement was seen today as winds tended lighter onshore across the South Coast, but the swell backed off to a small and inconsistent 2ft. Sea breezes have since freshened, deteriorating conditions again.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Small sized SW groundswell for Saturday
A slight lift in swell should be seen across both coasts tomorrow as an inconsistent SW groundswell fills in overnight. This swell was generated at the start of the week and should offer larger 3ft waves at Waits and Parsons, with 2ft sets at Middleton. The Mid should also inconsistent 0.5ft waves for beginners on the beaches.

Winds tomorrow are expected to improve but remain light and variable, with a light offshore expected to develop across both coasts during the morning. Only light sea breezes are likely, keeping conditions relatively clean all day.

2) Medium sized S/SW windswell building Sunday, with a medium sized SW groundswell for Monday, ahead of a reinforcing SW swell for Tuesday morning
The swell due on Monday is still on target, with inconsistent 3-4ft waves expected across Middleton, with 3-5ft sets at Waits, while the Mid Coast should see 1-1.5ft waves. This swell, generated by a vigorous polar frontal progression pushing up from below Heard Island, towards our state during the last few days will unfortunately be met with a localised S/SW windswell.

This windswell will be linked to the remnants of the polar frontal progression combining with ex-Tropical Cyclone Iggy over near WA, resulting in a re-intensification of the frontal system as it approaches from the west on Sunday.

A strong to gale-force fetch of S/SW winds will be projected up into our state during Sunday, kicking up 3-4ft of windswell later Sunday down South, while the Mid Coast should kick up to a stormy 2-3ft during the afternoon.

The front will pass quickly to the east, with a peak in size seen overnight, with Monday likely to see 3-4ft+ of windswell easing across the South Coast during the morning. The Mid should also ease back to 2ft+ or so.

A reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell is on the cards for Tuesday morning, generated by a secondary but weaker frontal system swinging up towards the state from south-east of Heard Island during the weekend and Monday. This should keep Middleton topped up with 3-4ft waves, with 3-5ft sets at Goolwa and Waits, while the Mid should continue to see 1-2ft sets. An easing trend should then occur into the afternoon and further Wednesday.

Now winds on Sunday morning will be OK for protected locations on the South Coast with a fresh and gusty W/NW'ly, but a swing to the SW should occur during the morning. Monday is now looking pretty good around Victor with a moderate W/NW'ly during the morning as the secondary cold front approaches from the west. Tuesday is looking a little less likely to see a morning W/NW'ly, but we'll confirm this on Monday. The Mid Coast may see an early S/SE'ly Tuesday, but it won't be until Wednesday until we see a true SE'ly.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
There's nothing significant on the cards for our state heading into next weekend as a strong blocking high moves in from the west. This will deflect any approaching cold fronts unfavourably away to the south-east, leaving us to rely on longer-range swell energy. Check back here on Monday for any change to this setup and in the meantime, have a great weekend!