Surf reports Mornington Peninsula

Weekend Outlook

W/SW swell building later Saturday, peaking Sunday with favourable winds.

Best Days

Saturday, Sunday.

Weather Forecast

A forecast summary for Mornington Peninsula for the next 5 days
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Sunny

17°

Late shower

18°

Showers

15°

Late shower

16°

Drizzle clearing

16°

Extended forecast
Effective from: Fri 18 Oct '13, 05:25PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Mon 21/10 6pm.

Previous day's summary:

A strong W/SW groundswell built through yesterday, starting at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast before pulsing to a solid 6ft+ into the afternoon with bigger bombs at swell magnets under a strong W'ly. The Mornington Peninsula also pulsed in size but the swell was only surfable in Western Port.

The swell eased overnight leaving 3-5ft waves across the Surf Coast this morning with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh N/NW winds. The swell should continue to ease as winds back off further.

Swell events within the forecast period:

Tomorrow morning will mark a low point in swell activity as we fall between today's easing W/SW swell and a strong new W/SW groundswell due into the afternoon ahead of a peak Sunday.

This new groundswell has and is still being generated by a broad and vigorous polar frontal progression that developed south-west of WA and is now pushing east under the country. A fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds are being aimed towards us, and an intensification to storm-force W/NW winds is expected this afternoon as the system moves towards Tassie.

A large W/SW groundswell should result that's expected to build later Saturday and peak Sunday with 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast with 6ft sets at swell magnets and at 13th Beach and 6-8ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds tomorrow will be fresh from the N/NW, while Sunday should see N/NW winds easing ahead of late change.

A reinforcing SW swell is expected on Monday generated by a trailing polar front firing up in the wake of the system responsible for the weekend's swell while another good pulse of S/SW swell is due into Tuesday afternoon generated by a tertiary polar front.

Winds are tricky, with the models wildly divergent on the outlook for early next week regarding a surface trough drifting in from the west. With this in mind you'll have to check back here on Monday for an update on how things are looking into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
While the models are divergent on early next week, there are indications by the major weather models that we'll see some good S/SW swell into the end of next week/following weekend. Check back here on Monday for an update on this though and in the meantime, have a great weekend!