Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 6 Feb '12, 09:05PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Wed 8/2 1pm.

Previous day's summary:

A small and inconsistent SW groundswell filled in on Saturday across both coasts as winds tended light NE west of Melbourne, and E/NE to the east. The swell then faded through Sunday as winds freshened from the N'th ahead of a gusty swing to the W/NW during the afternoon.

A stronger mix of SW groundswell and windswell have filled in today, coming in at 3-5ft across the Surf Coast with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were excellent west of Melbourne with a NW wind during the morning, but this has since tended more W'ly.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Reinforcing SW swell tomorrow, easing Wednesday
Today's strong mix of swells will be backed up by a reinforcing SW swell tomorrow, generated by a secondary cold front pushing up towards the state over the weekend while generating a fetch of strong to sub-gale-force SW winds. The Surf Coast should hold up around 3-4ft, with 5ft sets at 13th Beach, while the Mornington Peninsula is expected to persist at 6-8ft. The swell should then ease gradually during Wednesday ahead of a new S/SW swell for Thursday, discussed below.

Winds should remain favourable for the Surf Coast tomorrow morning with a moderate W/NW'ly, ahead of a swing to the SW during the afternoon. Wednesday is unfortunately looking poor with a morning S/SW'ly expected to tend S'ly into the afternoon.

2) Small S/SW groundswell for Thursday with a smaller SW groundswell building Friday, peaking overnight, with a SE windswell for Saturday
The weather system linked to yesterday's W'ly change as well as today's SW windswell is drifting south of Tasmania while forming into a deep polar low. This low will still along the Antarctic Shelf during this evening, aiming a fetch of severe-gale-force S'ly winds into our southern swell window.

This should produce an inconsistent S/SW groundswell for later Wednesday and Thursday morning to an inconsistent 2ft+ across the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell will then fade quickly into the afternoon. Winds on Thursday will unfortunately remain average with a moderate E/SE'ly expected to freshen during the day.

A smaller SW groundswell is then expected on Friday, generated by a weak polar frontal progression during the next couple of days. This isn't expected to top an inconsistent 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds on Friday will remain fresh and gusty from the E/SE, also kicking up a small SE windswell for the Surf Coast. This windswell should persist through Saturday coming in at 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula should put along at a small 2ft.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
Unfortunately there's nothing major on the cards for our state until the middle of next week at least, with a strong blocking pattern expected to be setup. Therefore make the most of today and tomorrows swell and check back here on Wednesday for the latest update.