Extended forecast

Effective from: Fri 24 May '13, 05:32PM

Forecast prepared by Ben Matson.
Next update Fri 24/5 5pm.

Previous day's summary:

It's been a lacklustre couple of days for Victorian surfers. Small waves yesterday and most of today have been hampered by tricky winds. However a new groundswell is starting to show across the coast with a few inconsistent 2ft sets appearing in Torquay, but there's no great push in it yet.

Forecast period ahead:

There are no major changes to the weekend surf forecast. However, it's important that we discuss the overall trend in more detail, because it's easy to gloss over the finer points when we're frothing for a decent wave after a few weeks of inactivity.

The main point that needs to be stressed is that we're expecting a building trend all day Saturday. This means that the dawn patrol - and probably much of the morning - will be smaller in size than the afternoon. Wind wise, we're looking at a regional synoptic westerly flow, which usually translates to a W/NW airstream for much of the day along the Surf Coast, however periods of W/SW winds can't be discounted - and they're more likely to happen in the afternoon than the morning.

So, the best conditions in Torquay on Saturday will probably occur in the morning, but the biggest waves will push through mid-late afternoon.

This swell will peak overnight, ahead of a slow easing trend throughout Sunday. So, the biggest waves on Sunday will be in the early morning - which is good news, because we're likely to see another morning W/NW flow across the Surf Coast. Winds strengths will be lighter overall compared to Saturday but brief W/SW tendencies are also possible (mainly in the afternoon).

As for the East Coast, the westerly wind will really dictate options here, confining the best waves to protected spots. So again, late Saturday and early Sunday are your best time frames.

Monday and Tuesday are looking pretty good. Computer models have wound back the intensity of a polar low that was forecast to push up a S/SW swell for the late session on Monday, in fact we're really looking at just a levelling trend through this time frame with light variable winds (Monday) tending N/NW (Tuesday). This should maintain fun clean waves along the Surf Coast for those of you that want to avoid the weekend crowds.

The rest of the forecast period is dominated by a painful blocking pattern that will keep a series of major swell generating systems well out to the far west of our swell window. The upside of this is that local conditions and winds will be clean for an extended period (Thurs thru' Sat, maybe even Sun) however surf sources will be distant, inconsistent and exhibiting very long periods. The first of these swells is due late Wednesday (showing at the coast Thursday morning) with a follow up westerly swell due Saturday. No great size is expected from either source though. More on this in Monday's update.