Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 6 Feb '12, 08:53PM

Forecast updated 6/2 5pm. Next update 8/2 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Previous day's summary:

There was some small E swell on Sat which tended to ENE swell Sun as longer range groundswell started to make landfall. Surf was in the 1-2ft range Sat with slightly larger surf on offer Sun. This morning saw stronger ENE swell in the 2-3ft range. Further groundswell is expected from this source as a tropical low winds its way down into the Tasman sea.

Swell Events in this Forecast:

Small NE swell Sat/Sun, leading to better quality ENE swell Mon/Tues/Wed

A small trough expected to form off the NSW S coast during Fri/Sat, intensifies NE winds off the NSW south coast and Bass Strait during Sat. This fetch, while nothing amazing should be capable of pushing NE swell up into the 2ft range during Sat and maintaining that size for Sun. Light winds Sat should tend N'ly and freshen on Sun as the fetch matures and a low approaches from the W.
Meanwhile a tropical depression drifting into the Coral Sea from the South Pacific is spraying the east coast with good quality E to NE swell. Most of this swell energy is aimed at SEQLD and NENSW but radial spread away from the source is expected to see good quality but inconsistent ENE swell in the 2-3ft range during Mon. Size is now expected to peak in the 3-4ft range Tuesday as the fetch migrates further south than first thought. Light winds are expected during this swell with offshore mornings expected.

Small ENE swell Thurs/Fri

The lingering effects of ENE winds in the wake of a low passing through the Tasman should see a slow easing trend in ENE swell during Thurs and Fri with size expected to hold in the 2ft range Thurs and ease back into the 1-2ft range Fri. A weak high pressure ridge over Tasmania should see a regime of light land and seabreezes.

E swell possible on the weekend.

Models are hinting at a trough to develop off the NSW coast on the weekend and while there is considerable uncertainty over the location of the trough and the surf potential for NETas there's reasonable odds the trough will form off the NSW S Coast with an E'ly infeed generating a small/mod E swell. We'll flag this swell now and come back Wed to see if it's still on the radar and dial in some specifics.

Longer Term Forecast (6+days)

Surf into the medium term will depend on the movement and interaction of the previously mentioned trough and a new high pressure system moving south of Tasmania on the weekend. There's good odds for a sustained E swell if the trough migrates towards New Zealand and maintains an E'ly fetch in the lower Tasman. Check back Wed and we'll have a lot more confidence in this broad scale pattern.