Extended forecast

Effective from: Fri 3 Feb '12, 05:30PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Mon 6/2 6pm.

Previous day's summary:

A fun sized S/SW groundswell filled in Wednesday afternoon and then peaked overnight before easing from 2ft+ across Clifton yesterday morning. Conditions were clean before afternoon sea breezes kicked in.

The swell dropped during the day and has faded further into this morning back to an inconsistent 1ft.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Small SW groundswell for Saturday morning
During the start of the week a broad but relatively weak frontal progression formed east of Heard Island and moved towards us along the Antarctic Shelf. This has produced a small and inconsistent SW groundswell for tomorrow that should peak around an infrequent 1ft to occasionally 2ft across Clifton before fading back to 1ft on Sunday.

Winds tomorrow should be light from the N/NE during the morning before freshening from the E/NE during the afternoon, favouring slightly more exposed locations.

2) Inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday
As talked about throughout the week, a small and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell is expected across Clifton on Monday, coming in at 1-2ft. This swell was produced by a vigorous frontal progression that started under Heard Island and then pushed slowly up towards SA during this week. The small swell size is linked to the unfavourable track of the system north towards SA, but in saying this there should still be small surfable waves across Clifton. Winds look to hold from the W/NW all day as well, keeping conditions clean.

3) Small to medium sized S/SW groundswell building Wednesday, peaking during the afternoon, easing Thursday
While we won't see any NW swell like WA did off Tropical Cyclone Iggy, we should see a S/SW groundswell associated with its movements over the weekend.

Ex-Tropical Cylone Iggy is currently being absorbed into the westerly storm track over WA, by the frontal system linked to Monday's W/SW groundswell. As this frontal system tracks south-east back towards polar latitudes it is expected to re-intensify and then form into a deep polar low to our south-southwest on Monday.

A fetch of near stationary severe-gale-force S/SW winds will be generated through our southern swell window during Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning, producing a fun pulse of S/SW groundswell to 2-3ft across Clifton on Wednesday afternoon. The swell should then ease into Thursday from 2ft+ or so. Winds on Wednesday at this stage look to be from the NW during the morning with SE sea breezes into the afternoon, while Thursday should see morning N/NE winds, freshening from the E/NE during the day.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
Beyond Wednesday afternoon's S/SW groundswell there's the possibility for a new swell late next week, but the models are divergent on this so check back here on Monday for an update. Have a great weekend!