Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 21 May '12, 04:30PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Mon 21/5 6pm.

Previous day's summary:

The surf became tiny into Saturday but a new swell started to show on Sunday with 1ft+ waves during the morning pulsing during the afternoon as offshore winds tended variable. This swell has eased a touch into today and should of faded further into this afternoon.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Small to medium sized W/SW groundswell building later tomorrow peaking Wednesday morning
Wave heights should become tiny and around 1ft tomorrow morning but a new swell should start to show its head during the afternoon. This swell is being generated by a broad fetch of gale to severe-gale-force winds to our west-southwest that are travelling towards us. The frontal system producing these winds will dip down to the south-east during tomorrow with the groundswell spreading out and pushing up into our coast during the afternoon.

Clifton should reach an infrequent 1-2ft ahead of a peak on Wednesday morning around 2ft+ at South Clifton with 3ft sets at North. A drop in size should be seen through the afternoon and further Thursday from an inconsistent 1-2ft+. Winds through tomorrow should be offshore from the NW all day, with Wednesday seeing morning NW winds tending variable into the afternoon.

2) Small pulse of SW groundswell for Friday morning ahead of a medium sized S/SW groundswell for midday Saturday
Trailing the system responsible for Wednesday's swell will be a small polar fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds. This should produce a small pulse of swell for Friday morning to 1-2ft before fading into the afternoon.

Of more importance is the development of a vigorous polar frontal progression to our south-west during Thursday with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds being projected through our southern swell window. This system will track a touch too fast for a large S/SW groundswell to be generated but winds will be strong enough to create a medium sized groundswell for Saturday. Clifton should pulse to 3-4ft during the day, peaking around lunch before fading into Sunday. You'll have to get in early though for the cleanest conditions during this swell event though as morning W/NW winds are expected to tend gusty S/SW during the morning. This will kick up a medium sized windswell for Sunday but this is discussed in more detail below.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
With the upper level Long Wave Trough peaking to our east we'll see a cut-off cold pool of air in the upper atmosphere feed into a deepening surface low pressure system. This low will project a fetch of S'ly gales into the South Arm overnight Saturday before moving off quickly east through Sunday. A low quality but medium sized S/SE windswell should be generated for Sunday creating messy 3-5ft waves across Clifton with winds holding from the S/SW. We'll review the size and local winds associated with this swell event on Wednesday though so check back then for an update.