Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 21 May '12, 04:51PM

Forecast updated 21/5 5pm. Next update 23/5 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Previous day's summary:

Not much surf to speak of over the weekend with size around 0.5-1ft on offer and mostly NW winds keeping things clean and flat. Small/flat surf has continued into this morning. 

Swell Events in this Forecast.

Small surf continuing through the working week.

A dynamic pattern is on the cusp of unfolding later in the week and over the weekend but until then nor-east surfers will have to suffer through more flatness as high pressure in the Tasman and a zonal pattern in the southern Ocean continue to produce a NW synoptic flow over the state and very small surf through the working week. A tiny bump in S swell expected Thurs/Fri is only expected to bring surf in the 1ft range. 

Small NE swell Sat.

HIgh pressure in the Tasman has pressure gradients squeezed by an approaching inland trough and complex frontal system late this week. While the strong fetch of N/NE winds is mostly confined to the NSW northern and central coasts a small amount of NE swell is expected to be generated by this fetch for NE Tas, arriving Sat. Expect size in the 2ft range.

S/SSE swell expected Sun/Mon as low forms in Tasman. 

A deep surface low is expected to form off Tasmania or the NSW south coast on Sun as a cold front and upper trough combine. Gales are expected to be formed off the east coast of Tasmania during Sun with S swell building into the 3ft range during the day. Surf is likely to build further into Mon  as SE winds on the southern flank of the low generate SE groundswell for the east coast. We'll need further model guidance to have confidence in the position and intensity of the low. Check back Wed for the latest. 

Longer Term Forecast (6+days)

Further cold fronts are expected to track NE into the lower Tasman during next week with S swell pulses on the menu into the middle of next week and a generally W'ly synoptic flow.