Extended forecast

Effective from: Mon 21 May '12, 05:37PM

Forecast updated 21/5 5pm. Next update 23/5 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Previous day's summary :

There was great surf over the weekend with Sat seeing some solid 4-5ft surf in the SW with offshore winds. Surf eased into Sun with size in the 3ft range at exposed breaks and an offshore flow. Size bumped up a notch into the 3-4ft range in the SW corner with offshore winds, with surf grading smaller 3-4ft in Geraldton and 1-2ft in Perth. 

Swell Events in this forecast

SW swell Mon/Tues.

A moderate strength low with gales south of 45S is currently tracking through the WA swell window with seas in excess of 20ft being recorded. Swell from this source is expected to provide a mod SW pulse with size in the 4-5ft range at SW spots and smaller surf in the rest of the state. Winds are favourable with a light SE flow, especially from the central west northwards. Surf eases through Tuesday. 

Strong SSW swell Wed/Thursday.

Our forecast SSW swell gets a downgrade due to a later development and a faster slide of the long wave trough towards the bight. This has put the focus of a long, wide fetch of gales to severe gales on the bight/Victoria with only the tail of the fetch in the WA swell window proper. This should generate a SSW groundswell arriving in the SW Wed in the 4-6ft range, easing into Thursday. Better news is the winds are now forecast to blow straight offshore due to high pressure over the SW of WA and a surface trough so there should still be some excellent albeit smaller surf to be had. 

Surf eases after this swell with a mostly strong offshore flow and small surf into the 2-3ft range.

Longer Term Forecast (6+days)

The long wave trough is in an unfavourable position for swell generation for WA with storms passing SE of Africa being shunted southwards. A moderate low pressure system developing seas in excess of 20ft passes SE of Madagscar Tuesday before being shunted to the S. This will see a small long period pulse Sun/Mon. Low pressure developing near Heard Island on the weekend should see moderate SW swell back on the menu for WA by mid next week. We'll update Wed as these storms become closer to reality.