Extended forecast

Effective from: Fri 3 Feb '12, 03:00PM

Forecast prepared by Craig Brokensha
Next update Mon 6/2 1pm.

Previous day's summary:

A drop in swell with fresh E/SE winds made for average to poor surfing conditions across both coasts yesterday. A further decrease in size has been seen today with winds becoming lighter from the East during the morning, creating OK waves on the Mornington Peninsula around 3ft, with tiny 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves on the Surf Coast.

Swell events within the forecast period:

1) Small and inconsistent SW groundswell for Saturday
Wave heights should jump overnight to an inconsistent 2ft across the Surf Coast, with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as a new inconsistent SW groundswell fills in. Winds are expected to tend NE during the morning tomorrow across the Mornington Peninsula, with E/NE winds on the Surf Coast before SE sea breezes kick in.

A drop in size from an inconsistent 2ft and 3-4ft respectively is expected on Sunday with morning offshore winds from the N'th ahead of a gusty W'ly change during the afternoon. Therefore surf early for the biggest and best waves.

2) Medium sized SW groundswell for Monday with a short-range SW swell also in the mix, holding Tuesday, easing Wednesday
An inconsistent but strong SW groundswell is still on track for Monday, generated by a vigorous polar front pushing up from below Heard Island towards South Australia over the last few days. This swell is expected to offer inconsistent 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula during most of Monday.

The remnants of the polar frontal progression is currently absorbing ex-Tropical Cyclone Iggy into the westerly storm track, and this will result in the re-intensification of the cold front as it approaches our state on Sunday. A quick-fire fetch of gale to severe-gale-force SW winds will be generated through our SW swell window on Sunday afternoon and evening, producing a solid pulse of short-range SW swell for Monday to a similar 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Now winds on Monday are looking a little better than they were on Wednesday with a moderate to fresh W/NW'ly expected to hold all morning ahead of a shift to the W/SW during the afternoon.

A secondary frontal system sling-shoting from the south-east of Heard Island up towards our state during the weekend and then across our state on Tuesday should produce a reinforcing SW swell for Tuesday. This should maintain solid 3ft+ waves across the Surf Coast, with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula through Tuesday before fading from 2-3ft and 5-6ft respectively on Wednesday.

Conditions will be cleanest again west of Melbourne on Tuesday with a morning W/NW'ly ahead of a swing to the SW during the day, while Wednesday looks dicey with a moderate S'ly expected to tend S/SE during the day.

2) Small S/SW groundswell for Thursday with a smaller SW groundswell building Friday, peaking overnight
At the bottom of the frontal system responsible for Monday's short-range SW swell, a small polar low is forecast to generate a fetch of severe-gale-force S'ly winds in our southern swell window. This should produce a fun 2ft+ of S/SW groundswell for Thursday morning on the Surf Coast, with 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula before fading into Friday afternoon.

A slightly smaller SW groundswell generated by a small polar front pushing through at polar latitudes to the south-west of Tassie during the middle of next week, should fill in on Friday afternoon. This is only expected to come in at 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are a little unsure at this stage as a trough moves across the state, but we'll review this again on Monday.

Long term forecast (6+ days):
There's nothing too significant on the cards for our state heading into next weekend as a strong blocking high moves in from the west. This will probably result in building levels of SE windswell into Friday and possibly Saturday but we'll look at this again on Monday. Have a great weekend!