Extended forecast

Effective from: Fri 3 Feb '12, 02:49PM

Forecast updated 3/2 5pm. Next update 6/2 5pm.
Forecast prepared by Steve Shearer.

Swell Events in this Forecast Period:

E'ly groundswell Sat, peaking in the a'noon, easing slowly through Sun.

New pulse possible Mon, easing into Tuesday.

Short range SE swell potentially on the cards Thurs/Fri.

There's been some onshore surf on the books since the last forecast with yesterday seeing a sneaky little pulse of SSE swell building along the North Coast during the morning. This combined with residual E'ly tradewind swell saw surf into the 3-4ft range during the morning. By the a'noon the swell from the southern quadrant was rapidly easing. Surf from this source didn't make much of an impression north of Cape Byron. Onshore winds kept wave quality low to average.

This morning we've seen surf level off into the 2-3ft range, comprising mostly E'ly tradewind swell generated in the South Pacific by a broad slow moving fetch which is extending south from waters between Vanautu and Fiji into the swell window SW and SE of New Caledonia. Surf quality has been low due to persistent onshore winds, with quality a tad better in NENSW where the synoptic flow has been lighter.

Compared to Wed's forecast the swell potential of the tropical low drifting in from the South Pacific has been downgraded a touch with the system losing tropical depression status as it was sheared by upper level winds. The system is expected to weaken as it tracks in to the Coral Sea, with a more southwards track expected. This means the primary fetch will become aimed more at NSW during today and tomorrow, compared to the more northerly track forecast on Wed. Following low pressure systems which are present along the monsoon trough are now expected to take a SE track away from the east coast and remain compact systems (possibly reaching TC status). The movement away from the coast and lack of supporting high means a vastly reduced surf potential going into next week. More on this later in the forecast.

Short term and the weekend stills looks good, if a tad weaker and smaller than Wed's forecast. Surf should build into the 4-5ft range during tomorrow after a smaller beginning. Winds are looking OK with a light SSE/SE flow expected. These winds may be light enough to consider beachbreaks, especially in the morning. The swell should be well spaced with sets and lulls if you're trying to avoid weekend crowds.

Size should ease a tad into Sun with sets in the 4ft range but don't expect a pumping swell. It'll be tidally affected especially on the morning tides which are large as we run-up to the full moon. Winds are expected to tend S/SE during the day and a slow easing trend is expected as the swell producing fetch migrates southwards out of the swell window.

Monday starts the week with the first chance of an offshore flow as the low tracks to the south and we get some of the outflow from the system. A slight increase in E'ly swell is on the cards (though with low confidence) if a secondary low briefly flares up south of Vanautu on Sat. This may see surf re-build into the 4ft range Mon. Light morning offshores and light S/SSE breezes should supply premium surface conditions for the first time in weeks. Could be a good day to pencil in if you have some flexibility in the schedule.

Tuesday sees E'ly swell easing with residual swell in the 3-4ft range, easing during the day. Winds are tricky at the moment with the remnants of the weekends low expected to linger off the coast as a trough, and SSW to SSE winds expected. Best to check local wind obs and check back Mon as these local troughs can often produce variable winds depending on where the trough is situated.

A weak high pressure ridge and the trough/low remnants in the Tasman sea should see mod SSW to SSE winds continue into Wed and Thursday with the potential for this combination to generate a small SE swell during Wed and into Thursday. Models don't show much in the way of windspeeds at the moment but we'll just flag the potential for this fetch to produce some short range SE swell next week.

Looking longer term and our tropical situation which was looking so promising on Wed now looks a whole lot less interesting. Low pressure forming in the Coral Sea is now expected to slide away to the SE with the strongest winds being the NW monsoonal flow into the low. That doesn't spell much surf potential for the east coast unless we get a change in behaviour from the low and it decides to stall in our swell window. With the breaking down of the strong downstream blocking high in the South Pacific E of New Zealand that is unlikely. So we're looking at surf easing into the end of next week from the E, with the chance of the Tasman sea firing up being our best bet for the next swell. Tune in Mon for the latest look at it and have a great weekend.